Canadian Employment Outlook: Analysis per Sector

Summarizing The Q3 2017 Canadian Employment Outlook
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Manpower Group’s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring prospects is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world which has been conducted for over 50 years. These surveys collect and analyze data drawn from real time, face-to-face interaction with clients and candidates and utilize best practices to identify, qualify, and meet employers’ and candidates’ respective business and career needs.

The Canadian employment outlook survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from the entire country and its territories. The research is completed using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. For the Quarter 3 2017 research, all employers participating in the survey nationwide were asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2017 as compared to the current quarter?”

The results were then quantified and tabulated into different categories to deliver accurate projections regarding the future employment outlook. In contrast to other surveys and studies which focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past, this survey focuses on asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. This information is typified in respective categories in the quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

Here’s a closer look at the employment outlook of different industrials verticals in the economy:

Construction

The moderate hiring pace in the construction sector is forecast to continue in the July-September time frame, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +5% for the third consecutive quarter. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable when compared with the third quarter of 2016.

Net Employment Outlook

Employers in all four major regions of the country, specifically – Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec and Western Canada, anticipate change in their staffing levels during the next three months in the following directions:

Regions

Education

Employers in the Education sector continue to report cautiously optimistic hiring plans with a Net Employment Outlook of +8% for Quarter 3, 2017. Hiring intentions are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter and improve by 3 percentage points when compared with Quarter 3 2016.

Net Employment

Employers in all 4 regions forecast payroll changes for Quarter 3 in the following ways:

regions forecast payroll

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Job seekers in the sector of finance, insurance and real estate can expect a favourable hiring climate in the forthcoming quarter, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +17%. Hiring prospects improve by 10 percentage points both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

 favourable hiring climate

Employers in the four major regions of the country anticipate change in their hiring prospects in the following ways:

major regions

Manufacturing – Durable Goods

A fair hiring climate is forecast for the third quarter of 2017, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. However, hiring intentions are 4 percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter and decline by 2 percentage points when compared with the third quarter of 2016.

 fair hiring climate

Employers in all 4 regions forecast payroll changes for Quarter 3 of 2017 in the following directions:

 regions forecast

Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods

Job seekers can expect some hiring opportunities in the next three months, according to manufacturing employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +5%. The Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger when compared with Quarter 2 2017, while remaining unchanged year-over-year.

 regions forecast

Employers in the four major regions of the country anticipate change in their hiring intentions in the following ways:

country anticipate

Mining

The strongest labour market in more than three years is expected in Quarter 3 2017 for the mining sector. Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +9%, improving by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 11 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.

strongest labour market

Employers in all 4 regions forecast payroll changes for Quarter 3 2017 in the following directions:

Employers in all 4 regions forecast

Public Administration

Employers in the public administration sector report upbeat hiring plans for the coming quarter with a Net Employment Outlook of +18%. Hiring intentions improve by 4 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and are 7 percentage points stronger when compared with Quarter 3 2016.

Hiring intentions improve

Employers in the four major regions of the country anticipate change in their payrolls in the following ways:

major regions of the country anticipate

Services

A moderate hiring pace is anticipated in the July-September time frame for the service industry, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. Hiring prospects decline by 2 percentage points when compared with the second quarter of 2017 and are 3 percentage points weaker year-over-year.

Hiring prospects decline

Employers in all 4 regions forecast changes in their hiring prospects for Quarter 3 in the following ways:

regions forecast changes

Transportation & Public Utilities

With a Net Employment Outlook of +10%, employers in the transportation sector forecast a fair hiring climate for the upcoming quarter. Hiring plans are 6 percentage points stronger when compared with the previous quarter and improve by 5 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.

 transportation sector forecast

Employers in the four major regions of the country expect changes in their hiring prospects in the following directions:

 major regions of the country expect

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Employers in the wholesale and retail sector expect a conservative hiring pace in Quarter 3 2017, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, and is 3 percentage points stronger when compared with Quarter 3 2016.

wholesale and retail sector expect

Employers in all 4 regions predict changes in their payroll for Quarter 3 2017 in the following ways:

Employers in all 4 regions predict changes

Deductions:

 industrial sectors forecast

Employers in all seven industrial sectors forecast payroll gains in Quarter 3, 2017. The strongest labour market is anticipated in the Public Administration sector, with an upbeat Net Employment Outlook of +18%. Year-over-year, hiring prospects improve in seven of the 10 industry sectors. Mining sector employers report a considerable improvement of 11 percentage points, while the Outlook for the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector is 10 percentage points stronger.

Of the ten surveyed industry sectors, employers in the Public Administration sector and Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector report the most upbeat results for the second quarter of 2017, projecting a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of eighteen and seventeen percent, respectively. This is followed by the Transportation & Public Utilities sector, reporting a positive seasonally adjusted Outlook of ten percent. Employers in the Construction and Manufacturing – Non-Durables sectors report the least optimistic results, both with a seasonally adjusted Outlook of five percent.

This was a brief summarization of the Canadian employee outlook for Quarter 3, 2017. For a greater insight regarding the recruitment prospects for your business, consult our experts at Manpower today.

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