A Brief Summarization Of The Q4 Canadian Employment Outlook

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    Employment Outlook

    The Manpower Group Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive forecast of hiring plans has been running for more than 50 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world.

    Throughout this report, we have used the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting it from the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook 2017.

    Net Employment Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless stated otherwise. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Portugal. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the Portuguese data in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

    The Manpower Group Employment Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2017 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 1,937 employers in Canada. All survey participants
    were asked one key question – How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 2017 as compared to the current quarter?.

    The results were then quantified and systematized using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards prevalent in market research. The margin of error for the Canadian survey is +/- 2.2%. Collated below is a brief account of the Canadian Employment Outlook 2017:

    Analysis By Region:

    • Atlantic Canada

    Staffing levels are forecast to grow in six of the seven areas for the region of Atlantic Canada during Quarter-4 2017. Cape Breton Area employers report the strongest hiring plans with an Outlook of +27%, while a steady hiring pace is expected in Halifax, where the Outlook is +16%. However, Saint John employers anticipate a decline in staffing levels, reporting an Outlook of -9%.

    When compared with Quarter-3 2017, hiring prospects improve in four areas, most notably by 29 percentage points in Cape Breton Area and by 18 percentage points in Charlottetown. However, hiring plans weaken in three areas, including Moncton and Saint John, where employers report declines of 12 and 11 percentage points, respectively.

    Year-over-year, hiring plans weaken in four areas. Employers in both Moncton and Saint John report considerable declines of 10 percentage points. Elsewhere, hiring prospects are improving. By 20 percentage points in Cape Breton Area and by 18 percentage points in St. John’s.

    Abstract:

    Job seekers can expect a slight increase in staffing levels during the next three months. According to employers in the region, a Net Employment Outlook of +5% is predicted for Atlantic Canada. Hiring plans improve by 2 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter while remaining relatively stable when compared with this time one year ago.

    • Ontario

    Employers in 22 of the 24 areas in Ontario forecast an increase in the staffing levels during the next three months. The strongest hiring prospects are reported in Windsor, where the Outlook stands at +16%, and in Toronto, with an Outlook of +15%. Steady payroll gains are also forecast in three areas – Hamilton, Cambridge Area and Thunder Bay – with Outlooks of +13% respectively. However, employers in two areas – York Region and Northumberland County – expect a decline in payrolls, with Outlooks of -7% and -4%, respectively.

    When compared with the third quarter of 2017, hiring prospects strengthen in nine areas, most notably by 10 percentage points in Cornwall and by 8 and 7 percentage points in Durham Region and Brantford, respectively. However, Outlooks weaken in 14 areas. York Region employers report the most noteworthy decline of 20 percentage points, while the Northumberland County Outlook decreases by 16 percentage points. In Mississauga and London, Outlooks decline by 11 and 10 percentage points, respectively.

    Hiring intentions strengthen in 10 areas when compared with Quarter-4 2016, most notably by 17 percentage points in St. Catharines. Considerable improvements are also reported in three areas – Fort Erie, Thunder Bay, and Windsor – with increases of 13 percentage points. Meanwhile, Outlooks weaken in 14 areas, most notably by 20 percentage points in Northumberland County, and by 17 and 11 percentage points in Mississauga and York Region, respectively.

    Abstract:

    The cautiously optimistic hiring climate in Ontario is expected to continue in the upcoming quarter, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +10% for the fourth consecutive quarter. When compared with Quarter 4 2016, hiring plans improve by 2 percentage points.

    • Quebec

    Payrolls are expected to increase in all the five areas of Quebec during the coming quarter. Monteregie employers report the strongest hiring prospects with an Outlook of +30%, while Quebec City employers report a cautiously optimistic Outlook of +10%. Meanwhile, limited job gains are expected in two areas – Cantons de L’Est (formerly Sherbrooke) and Laval – with Outlooks of +1%.

    When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects weaken in four areas. Most notably by 5 percentage points in Montreal, and by 3 percentage points in both Cantons de L’Est and Laval. However, Monteregie employers report an improvement of 8 percentage points.

    Employers report weaker hiring intentions in three areas when compared with last year’s statistics. The Outlook for Montreal declines by 8 percentage points, while Outlooks are 7 and 4 percentage points weaker in Cantons de L’Est and Laval, respectively. However, Monteregie employers report a sharp improvement of 28 percentage points.

    Abstract:

    Employers in Quebec report the strongest hiring intentions for more than two years with a Net Employment Outlook of +11% for the October-December time frame. Hiring prospects in this region remain relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    • Western Canada

    Workforce gains are anticipated in all 11 areas of Western Canada during the next three months. The strongest labour market is anticipated in Burnaby-Coquitlam, with a healthy Outlook of +28%. Steady job gains are also expected in Surrey, with an Outlook of +13% and in Richmond-Delta and Vancouver, where Outlooks stand at +12%. Meanwhile, Winnipeg employers report the most cautious hiring plans with an Outlook of +4%.

    Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions strengthen in five areas. Burnaby-Coquitlam employers report a considerable increase of 15 percentage points, while the Outlook for Regina is 9 percentage points stronger. However, hiring prospects also decline in five areas, most notably by 10 percentage points in Winnipeg and by 8 percentage points in Saskatoon.

    Employers in six areas report improvement in hiring plans when compared with the final quarter of 2016. The Outlook for Burnaby Coquitlam is 25 percentage points stronger, while Regina employers report an improvement of 11 percentage points. Meanwhile, Outlooks decline in four areas, most notably by 10 percentage points in Victoria & Capital Regional District and 7 percentage points in Winnipeg, respectively.

    Abstract:

    Reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +10%, employers in Western Canada expect the moderate hiring pace to continue in the final quarter of 2017. The Outlook is unchanged for the third consecutive quarter and improves by 3 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.

    Analysis By Organizational Size

    • Micro-Sized Businesses

    Hiring plans remain unchanged for Micro-Sized Businesses when compared with the previous quarter. The Overall Employment Outlook 2017 for the fourth quarter stands at a cautious +3%.

    • Small-Sized Businesses

    For Small-Sized Businesses, the Net Employment Outlook stands at a +7% and the hiring prospects are relatively stable for the upcoming quarter.

    • Medium-Size Businesses

    While the hiring plans remain altered for Medium Sized employers, a steady hiring pace is forecasted with an Outlook of +11% for these businesses.

    • Large-Size Businesses

    Large-sized employers report relatively stable hiring prospects. However, the strongest labour market is predicted with a Net Employment Outlook of +23% for these employers.

    Businesses

    Abstract:

    Hiring plans remain unchanged for Micro and Medium-sized employers when compared with the previous quarter, while Small and Large-sized employers report relatively stable hiring prospects.

    Conclusion:

    Canadian employers report conservative hiring plans for the final quarter of 2017. With 12% of employers expecting to increase staffing levels, 6% anticipating a decrease and 80% forecasting no change, the Net Employment Outlook is +6%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +9%, with hiring prospects remaining relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

    For a greater understanding of these employment outlooks and its association with your recruitment strategy, consult our workforce management experts at Manpower.

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