A Sector-Wise Analysis Of The Quarter – 1 Canadian Employment Outlook

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    human resource management

    ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive employment forecast is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Running for more than 50 years now, the survey is conducted quarterly to measure the hiring intentions of employers based on their plans to increase or decrease their workforce. The data is drawn from face-to-face interactions with employers from around the globe. ManpowerGroup utilizes the best practices of evaluation to provide you with reliable projections of recruiting intentions.

    The Canadian employment outlook survey for Quarter 1 of 2018 is conducted with a representative sample of 1, 927 employers from around the country. The sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to offer a detailed outlook of employment activity. All employers around Canada participating in the survey were asked a question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2018 as compared to the current quarter?” The results were then analyzed using a validated methodology in accordance with the highest standards in market research.

    In contrast to other surveys and studies that focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past, the employment outlook survey developed by this renowned human resource management consultant is forward-looking and provides results derived from future plans of employers.

    Let’s take a closer look at the upcoming quarter’s employment outlook for different industry verticals.

    Construction

    human resource management

    The construction industry is expected to experience the weakest labor market in more than two years during the first quarter of 2018. Employers within the sector report a cautious Net Employment Outlook of +3%. In comparison with the final and the first quarter of 2017, the hiring outlook declines by 5 and 4 percentage points, respectively.

    Employment outlook across the four major regions of the nation – Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec, and Western Canada – remains stable after seasonal adjustments, but employers in the region report weak recruiting intentions in the Construction sector.

    Regions Increase Decrease

    No Change

    Don’t Know

    Net Employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Atlantic Canada

    8

    23

    69

    0

    -15

    6

    Ontario

    5

    15

    71

    9

    -10

    4

    Quebec

    6

    12

    82

    0

    -6

    8

    Western Canada

    16

    27

    57

    0

    -11

    3

    Education

    A stable hiring climate can be expected in the upcoming three months as employers in the education industry report a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. When compared to the last quarter of 2017, hiring plans to improve by 5 percentage points. However, there is a decline of 2 percentage points when compared to this time one year ago.

    Staffing levels and hiring intentions in the four regions are expected to change in the following manner:

    Regions

    Increase

    Decrease

    No Change

    Don’t Know

    Net Employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Atlantic Canada

    8

    17

    75

    0

    -9

    -2

    Ontario

    6

    0

    91

    3

    6

    6

    Quebec

    14

    0

    82

    4

    14

    14

    Western Canada

    17

    7

    73

    3

    10

    10

    Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

    Job seekers can expect a strong hiring pace during the January to March period of 2018. Employers anticipate the strongest labor market in more than 11 years for the next quarter, as they report a Net Employment Outlook of +26%. Hiring prospects also remain strong for both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year with an of 13 and 14 percentage points, respectively.

     A brisk hiring pace is expected across the four regions in this sector.

    Regions

    Increase

    Decrease

    No Change

    Don’t Know

    Net Employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Atlantic Canada

    22

    0

    78

    0

    22

    17

    Ontario

    27

    0

    70

    3

    27

    25

    Quebec

    31

    0

    69

    0

    31

    36

    Western Canada

    19

    0

    81

    0

    19

    22

    Manufacturing – Durable Goods

    Employers in the durable goods manufacturing industry report a Net Employment Outlook of +20%. This signifies an improvement by 7 percentage points in comparison to the previous quarter and 5 percentage points in comparison to the first quarter of 2017. Employers anticipate a strong hiring pace for the January to March period.

    The recruiting scenario looks optimistic across three regions, except in Atlantic Canada, where the employment outlook is comparatively low. A detailed overview of the hiring pace can be seen below:

    Regions

    Increase

    Decrease

    No Change

    Don’t Know

    Net Employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Atlantic Canada

    0

    18

    82

    0

    -18

    5

    Ontario

    27

    6

    65

    2

    21

    20

    Quebec

    22

    9

    69

    0

    13

    20

    Western Canada

    19

    8

    72

    1

    11

    16

    Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods

    Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +12% and steady payroll gains are anticipated in the upcoming quarter. Hiring intentions are 8 percentage points stronger as compared to the Quarter 4 of 2017, but remain unchanged when compared to this time one year ago.

    A strong employment outlook in the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector is reported in Western Canada and Quebec, while a moderate hiring pace is anticipated in Ontario. Employers in Atlantic Canada report a weak hiring pace with a negative employment outlook. Employers anticipate a change in hiring plans in the following way:

    Regions

    Increase

    Decrease

    No Change

    Don’t Know

    Net Employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Atlantic Canada

    6

    25

    69

    0

    -19

    -12

    Ontario

    17

    10

    70

    3

    7

    7

    Quebec

    17

    3

    72

    8

    14

    16

    Western Canada

    21

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