Summarizing The Q3 2017 Canadian Employment Outlook

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The Manpower Group Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. These surveys are extensive and unparalleled in their size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Our employment surveys are conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards of market research, with a margin of error of +/- 2.2%.

The Manpower Group Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 2017 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 1,933 employers in Canada. All the participants of the survey were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2017 as compared to the current quarter?”

Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in their hiring activity and subtracting it from the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries to provide an accurate summary.

Post a thorough cataloguing and tabulation of the data collected, the Canadian employment outlook 2017 can be summarized as:

Comparisons on The Basis of Organization Size

Employers participating in this survey are categorized into four sets based on the size of their organization: Micro businesses which have less than 10 employees; Small businesses which have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses with 50-249 employees; and Large businesses that employ 250 or more employees.  Employers in all four organization size categories anticipate change in the staffing levels during the next three months in the following ways:

Large Organizations:

Large employers report active hiring intentions with a Net Employment Outlook of +22%. When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects remain relatively stable for these organizations.

Medium Organizations:

Net Employment Outlook for Medium employers stands at a positive 11% and hiring prospects appear to be relatively stable in comparison with the previous quarter.

Small Organizations:

For Small employers, Net Employment Outlook positions at +6% and hiring prospects appear to be stable with the previous quarter.

Micro Organizations:

Micro employers report the most cautious Employment Outlook of +2% and report no change in their hiring prospects from the previous quarter.

Micro employers

Manpower Group

Deductions:

Canadian employers report respectable hiring intentions for the July-September time frame. With 17% of employers forecasting an increase in staffing levels, 4% expecting a decrease and 78% anticipating no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook is +13%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +8%. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and improve by 2 percentage points when compared with Quarter 3 2016.

Comparisons On The Basis Of Regions

Employers participating in the survey are categorized in 4 different classifications based on the regions their operations are localized in, specifically – Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario and Western Canada. Employers in all 4 regions forecast payroll changes for Quarter 3 2017 in the following directions:

Atlantic Canada:

Employers expect the slow-paced labour market to continue in Quarter 3 2017, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +3% for the second consecutive quarter. This outlook remains relatively stable when compared with this time a year ago.

Hiring plans weaken in four areas of the region when compared with the previous quarter. Charlottetown employers report a sharp decline of 24 percentage points, while Outlooks are 6 and 5 percentage points weaker in Cape Breton Area and Saint John, respectively.

Meanwhile, Outlooks improve in three areas, most notably by 20 percentage points in Moncton and by 11 percentage points in Halifax. Outlooks improve in four areas when compared with Quarter 3 2016. Halifax employers report a considerable increase of 14 percentage points while Outlooks are 8 and 7 percentage points stronger in St. John’s and Moncton, respectively. However, hiring prospects weaken in three areas, most notably experiencing a downgrade by 26 percentage points in Charlottetown and 17 percentage points in Cape Breton Area.

Quebec:

The strongest labour market in more than two years is forecast for the upcoming quarter, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +11%. Hiring prospects strengthen by 7 and 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively.

Workforce gains are anticipated in all five areas in the region during Quarter 3 2017, with the strongest hiring pace expected in Laval*, where the Outlook is +20%. Steady job growth is also forecast for the area of Monteregie (formerly Granby) and Montreal, with Outlooks of +13% and +12%, respectively. Meanwhile, the weakest forecast of +7% is reported in Cantons De L’Est (formerly Sherbrooke).

Outlooks improve in four of the five areas in comparison with the previous quarter, with the most noteworthy improvements of 13 and 8 percentage points reported in Laval* and Monteregie (formerly Granby), respectively. Elsewhere, Cantons De L’Est employers report no change. When compared with the third quarter of 2016, hiring prospects strengthen in three areas, including Monteregie with an increase of 11 percentage points. However, hiring prospects decline by 10 percentage points in Cantons De L’Est.

Seasonally adjusted data is available for four of the five areas in Quebec, but figures for Laval (*) are not seasonally adjusted.

Ontario:

Job seekers can expect some hiring opportunities in the third quarter of 2017, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +10%. Hiring intentions are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter and improve by 2 percentage points when compared with the third quarter of 2016.

Staffing levels are expected to increase in 22 of the 24 areas of the region during the next three months. Employers in both Mississauga and Kitchener/Cambridge Area report the strongest hiring plans with Outlooks of +19%, while steady payroll gains are also forecast in London and Hamilton, with Outlooks of +18% and +17%, respectively. However, Durham Region employers report uncertain hiring prospects with an Outlook of -2%, while flat hiring activity is anticipated in Cornwall where the Outlook is 0%.

Hiring prospects strengthen in 16 areas when compared with the previous quarter. The most notable improvement of 15 percentage points is reported in London, while Outlooks are 9 and 8 percentage points stronger in Mississauga and Windsor, respectively. Meanwhile, Outlooks weaken in five areas, including Cornwall and Brampton, where employers report declines of 14 and 7 percentage points, respectively.

Outlooks improve in 17 areas when compared with this time one year ago. Welland/Port Colborne employers report the most noteworthy increase of 17 percentage points, while Outlooks are 14 and 13 percentage points stronger in Mississauga and Northumberland County, respectively. However, hiring prospects weaken in six areas, including Brantford and Durham Region, where employers report declines of 13 percentage points

Western Canada:

Reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +10% for the next three months, employers anticipate the strongest hiring pace in more than two years. Hiring plans remain relatively stable when compared with Quarter 2 2017 and improve by 4 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.

Employers in all 11 areas expect to increase staffing levels during the coming quarter. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in three areas with Outlooks of +14% – Saskatoon, Surrey and Winnipeg. Steady job gains are also expected in Burnaby-Coquitlam and Edmonton, with Outlooks of +12% and +11%, respectively. Meanwhile, the weakest Outlook of +1% is reported in Regina.

When compared with the second quarter of 2017, Outlooks improve in seven areas, most notably by 5 percentage points in Winnipeg and by 4 percentage points in both Calgary and Edmonton. However, employers in four areas report weaker hiring intentions, including Red Deer, with a decrease of 10 percentage points, and two areas with declines of 8 percentage points – Richmond-Delta and Vancouver.

Year-over-year, hiring prospects also improve in seven areas. Saskatoon employers report the most notable increase of 17 percentage points, while Outlooks are 14 percentage points stronger in both Calgary and Surrey. However, hiring plans weaken in four areas, most notably by 15 and 7 percentage points in Victoria & Capital Regional District and Richmond-Delta, respectively.

total employment

Deductions:

Across the country, employers in Quebec report the strongest hiring intentions with a Net Employment Outlook of eleven percent. This is followed by Ontario and Western Canada where the outlooks stand at a respectable ten percent. Meanwhile, employers in Atlantic Canada expect a fair hiring pace, with an Outlook of three percent.

This was a brief summary of the Canadian employment outlook 2017 for Quarter 3. You can consult our recruitment experts to get a more nuanced outlook at the employment set up for the next quarter.

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